Lyme Disease Surveillance in Connecticut
"Connecticut reported 1,788 cases in 2006, mainly from doctors. But what if labs were still reporting? By assuming that labs report in the same proportion as 2002, we're looking at 5,902 cases for 2006." Yvonne Bokhour and Peter Arno, Professor in the Department of Health Policy and Management, School of Public Health, New York Medical College, Valhalla, N.Y
The number of new cases of physician confirmed Lyme reported to the Connecticut DPH in 2006 was 1,788. But, as discussed in the attached article by Bokhour and Arno, the true number of physician confirmed cases is much higher, for two reasons. First, until 2003 both doctors and labs were required to notify the state Department of Public Health when patients tested positive for Lyme, but since 2003 the state stopped requiring labs to report positive results. In 2002, 4,631 cases were reported. But in 2003, cases fell to 1,403. By assuming that labs report in the same proportion as they did in 2002, the comparable number of cases for 2006 would be 5,902. Second, the CDC tells us in their weekly MMWR report of May 2004 that studies show "that LD cases were underreported by six to 12-fold in some areas where LD is endemic (2,3)". Bokhour and Arno quote that case numbers represent only 10 percent to 20 percent of diagnosed cases. The authors in the attached article write: "assuming conservatively that case reports represent 20 percent of diagnosed cases, Connecticut's 2006 case numbers jump to 29,509".
So for 2006 the reported number of new Lyme cases is 1,788 and the estimated true number of new cases is 29,509. References
1. CDC. Case definitions for infectious conditions under public health surveillance. MMWR 1997;46(No. RR-10):20--1. 2. Meek JI, Roberts CL, Smith EV Jr, Cartter ML. Underreporting of Lyme disease by Connecticut physicians, 1992. J Public Health Manage Pract 1996;2:61--5. 3. Coyle BS, Strickland GT, Liang YY, Pena C, McCarter R, Israel E. The public health impact of Lyme disease in Maryland. J Infect Dis 1996;173:1260--2. "

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